Sunday, December 30, 2012

On the Egyptian Economy

In the aftermath of the events surrounding the writing, protesting, voting, and passage of Egypt's new constitution, the Egyptian economy has once again taken center stage.  And the news, it seems, just keeps getting worse.

Now, I will warn you up front that, as a law student, I'm no economist.  In the field of economics, I know the supply and demand curve and that magic little point right where the lines intersect that's supposed to be the optimal level of production.  The rest is so much voodoo floating far, far over my head.  Which is why this post isn't focusing too much on analysis, put on providing information I've read in the news . . .

First, it's been well established that the Egyptian economy - which, according to those magical economists, was never exceptionally strong - took a major hit in the aftermath of the 25 January Revolution.  Political turmoil is never good for business, and Egypt was no exception: for instance, the country's foreign international reserves have fallen from $36 billion in December 2010 to $15 billion earlier this month.  As the Wall Street Journal writes, this is "barely enough to cover three months of imports—the minimum the IMF recommends for its members."

Within the last couples weeks/couple days, Egypt's economy suffered several new blows:
And now, today, another bit of bad news: the Egyptian pound has fallen to an eight-year low against the U.S. dollar.

Again, I'm no economist.  So for an analysis of these economic indicators and their potential effects on Egypt's citizens, the economies of other Middle Eastern countries, etc. you should probably ask someone who understands all of this significantly better than I do.  That said, here are some more links on the Egyptian economy that you may find useful:

Saturday, December 29, 2012

What is the al-Nusra Front? (Part 2 - What Has the Group Done?)

Continuing our discussion of the al-Nusra Front, we'll now turn from a more general discussion of the group and its mysterious leadership to its actions and its growing strength within the cadre of Syrian rebel groups fighting against the Assad regime.

What Has the al-Nusra Front Done?
Early in the year, during the first weeks/months of the al-Nusra Front's existence, it is somewhat difficult to determine precisely what attacks the group was responsible for.  Indeed, because some of the early attacks that were later claimed by, or attributed to, the al-Nusra Front - for instance, a suicide bombing of a trio of buses carrying Syrian riot police in a Damascus neighborhood in early January - occurred before the group was well known, rumors were rampant that al-Nusra was, in fact, a front created by the Syrian government to discredit the Free Syrian Army and other rebel factions.

Regardless of the truth or falsity of al-Nusra's claims on early attacks, the rest of 2012 demonstrated the group's grim expertise, its power, and it authenticity.

For a more complete list of (claimed) attacks by the al-Nusra Front than you will ever likely need, I'd recommend consulting the group's Arabic-language statements, which have been gathered on the Jihadology blog by the inimitable Aaron Zelin.  However, the following is but a brief list of al-Nusra's most significant attacks:
Additionally, here is a map depicting the locations and relative frequency of al-Nusra's attacks between January and September 2012:
Source: Elizabeth O'Bagy, "Jihad in Syria," Middle East Security Report 6, September 2012.
Finally, the al-Nusra Front's terrorist output is prolific.  The group has claimed credit for hundreds of attacks, large and small - ranging from small-arms battles and attacks on traffic checkpoints to major suicide or car/truck bombings - including, in one instance, claiming credit for forty-five (45) attacks in four separate Syrian provinces in a single day.  In total, al-Nusra is allegedly responsible for nearly 600 attacks against Syrian forces and Assad loyalists since November 2011 (Time Magazine and State Department Press Statement Designating al-Nusra as a Terrorist Organization).

And . . . I was going to make this post a bit longer and discuss the importance of the al-Nusra Front within the larger context of the Syrian conflict/civil-war, but . . . I think this is long enough for now.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Merry Christmas! (And Some Christmas/Christian-Related Links)

Merry belated Christmas, everybody!  I didn't do any blogging yesterday, choosing instead to eat chocolate, horde my loot, and take the girlfriend to see Les Miserables.  To all those menfolk taking their significant others to Les Mis, just remember: in a darkened theatre, no one can see you cry.

All in all, it was a relaxing way to celebrate the birth of Jesus, who is Lord and also the Christ.  In the spirit of Christmas, here are some Middle East-ish Christian/Christmas-related links.  Apologies for the fact that many of them are depressing . . .

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Today's Interesting Links

Here are some interesting links from my perusal of the interwebs today:
Also, some Syria stories:
UPDATE: al-Jazeera is running a story/video alleging that the Assad regime is using nerve gas against Syrian rebels in the city of Homs.  Here is the alleged video.  It should go without saying that the contents of the video cannot be independently verified.  Additionally, a lot of the commenters are knocking the video as a fake, noting that the doctors don't seem to be wearing any protective gear or taking any significant precautions.  This sounds like a relatively decent point, but I'm no expert on chemical weapons.  It seems to me that biological weapons would certainly require the doctors to take greater precautions when treating afflicted victims; however, chemical weapons seems like a horse of a different color, as it were.  So, in short, I don't know.  If I find out anything further about the video, I'll post another update.

Friday, December 21, 2012

What is the al-Nusra Front? (Part 1)

As the Syrian conflict/civil-war continues to spiral into a bloodier and bloodier mess, I want to take a moment to write about a group that is playing a central role in the conflict: Jabhat al-Nusra (جبهة النصرة لأهل الشام), aka the al-Nusra Front. The al-Nusra Front was big news about a week ago when the US government designated the group as a terrorist organization.


So what is the al-Nusra Front?  Who are its members?  And what is the role that the group has played, is playing, and may eventually play in the larger Syrian conflict of which it is but one small (albeit powerful) component part?

As a general introduction, the al-Nusra Front is one of the most - if not the most - powerful factions involved in the Syrian conflict.  It was founded in January 2012.  The group's religious bent is Sunni Islamic, and its ideology is, more specifically, Salafist: as one military commander of the group has stated,
"Our first goal is to get rid of Assad. Then we want a state where the Quran is the only source of law . . . . Sharia is the right path for all humanity - all other laws make people unhappy."
Indeed, as the International Crisis group has pointed out, the al-Nusra Front views the deposition of Bashar al-Assad and his regime as "only half the battle."  Full success for al-Nusra will "come only once the entire regime was replaced with an Islamic state following Salafi principles."  (See International Crisis Group, "Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition").

Leader(s): The leaders of the al-Nusra Front are largely unknown.  An unidentified man using the nom de guerre of Al-Fateh Abu Muhammad al-Jolani (transliteration differences online sometimes render this as "al-Golani," "al-Jilani," or "al-Jawlani") narrated the group's initial video release (main portion of video w/ subtitles beginning around 4:02), announcing its formation, describing the rationale for its coming to Syria, and outlining its aims. Al-Jolani has been identified as the al-Nusra Front's leader, or, in some instances, as its "General Secretary."  Whatever that means.  I don't have a picture of this mysterious al-Jolani to show you. Sorry.  Or maybe I do . . . here's a picture of general khafiya-clad al-Nusra Front members from their video.  Maybe he's one of them - like, say, black-hooded-executioner-guy in the bottom corner?

The number and identities of other senior al-Nusra Front officers are equally unknown.  Allegedly, however, much of the top leadership is made up of non-Syrians: specifically, Lebanese and Palestinian militants - some of whom are linked to the Palestinian Fatah al-Islam organization.  This analysis of al-Nusra's leadership seems to have found some level of confirmation from the testimony of Syrian fighters who have fought or interacted with the al-Nusra Front in various ways.  For instance:
A rebel soldier who briefly joined JN [e.g. Jabhat al-Nusra] before opting to join with the rebel Suqour al-Sham Brigade stated that, "Most of the young men I worked with were Syrian revolutionaries who joined JN because they were stronger and more effective. Yes we are mujahideen, but we didn’t think of it as al-Qaeda."  He added, "There was a lot of secrecy surrounding the leadership.  I left JN when I discovered that many of the leaders were not Syrian but Lebanese or Palestinians that used to work with the Syrian intelligence agencies."
 The general consensus is that the ranks of the al-Nusra Front's leadership are filled with a number of experienced jihadists who have fought on various battlefields throughout the Arab World and Central Asia.

I am going to cut this off here for length purposes, but will post more on al-Nusra within the next several days.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

20th Century Battlefields: The Yom Kippur War

Mostly for more layout testing purposes, but also for your enjoyment, an embedded video: a BBC documentary on the Yom Kippur War of 1973.


Introductory Post

OK . . .

Greetings and welcome! It looks like I'm going to try giving blogging another go, so I thought I'd write this brief introduction to let you all know what you're getting yourselves into.

My intent with this blog is to create a space for my thoughts on topics that interest me - and, hopefully, also interest you. Specifically, my hope/goal is to post about the Middle East, United States security policy, and anything else that I might be interested in at a given moment.

This blog will probably start out slowly, with posted links and the like. However, I am hoping to have time to write longer, more analytical posts.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Today's Interesting Links

OK, to test the general layout and look of the new blog, we're just to throw in some interesting links I've found today...
Alright . . . Let's see how this looks.