I want to let it be known right now that if I am ever responsible for a military victory sufficiently important to warrant an honorific greeting ceremony and the presentation of gifts, it better be as awesome as this one. If all I get is a crappy brass band, well . . . that event planner will be thanked with a one-way ticket to Guantanamo Bay. But I digress . . .
Three weeks since France initiated Opération Serval to free northern Mali from Islamists aligned with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), French gains are certainly something to be celebrated. Islamist fighters have been driven from most of Azawad's major cities, and the civilian population - which has suffered for nearly a year under the Islamists' puritanical, uncompromising version of shari'a law - are once again able to enjoy the basic freedoms and activities that were denied them by the Islamists:
And so it is that Mr. Hollande arrived in Mali yesterday to a hero's welcome, the kind of jubilant gratitude that former President George W. Bush could only have dreamt about from the citizens of liberated Iraq or Afghanistan, or that even President Obama would be unlikely to receive from the fractious tribes of post-Gaddafi Libya. (Indeed, it is my fervent belief that President Bush would have greatly preferred receiving a camel - even a constipated one - to the gift of shoes that he was so infamously given during a Baghdad press conference.)
But while President Hollande is currently riding high, the French victory - and Malian peace - is by no means assured. As many have pointed out, comparatively few Islamist fighters have been killed in the French campaign. Most have fled into the mountains and deserts, lurking in the redoubts and hiding places that the GSPC (e.g. Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat - the Algerian jihadist group that later evolved into AQIM) formerly called home. And it is there they will likely stay - unless someone (*cough* the French *cough*) roots them out or until they see new opportunities to exert themselves. The Islamist groups of the Sahel did a brisk business in smuggling, kidnapping for profit, and other criminal enterprises before they got into the whole "seizing-control-of-countries" game. They are perfectly capable of maintaining their strength and keeping their coffers full without the bother that administrating a state (even through the relatively simplistic methods of brutality and fear) entails.
Thus, the measure of Opération Serval, like the US military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq before it, will come not from the initial victory - which, as Hollande's visit shows, has already largely been achieved - but from the standpoint of long-term stability. Will the Islamists return if given the chance? Will Mali descend into tit-for-tat recriminations, or, worse, full-blown ethnic conflict? Will the French stay (Hollande told a crowd in the Malian capitol of Bamako that "We will be with you to the end," and also stated that the French would stay in Mali "as long as necessary") or quickly hand over military responsibility of the country to the not-exactly-stellar Malian security forces?
These are all questions that will be answered in time. Until then, however, I hope that Mr. Hollande can occasionally take some time off from presidentin' to enjoy his camel. Picturing him riding it up and down the Champs-Élysées (and imagining it growling at unsuspecting Parisians) brings nothing but joy to my heart.
More stories/video about President Hollande's visit to Mali:
"Music is a pleasure for us . . . We can now dance and do whatever we want: We can walk together with women, we can shout, we're the young people of Timbuktu, this is what we like doing."Women are free to wear what they wish, no longer confined to the niqab. Men can once again play sports in the streets. No longer are brutal punishments such as amputations or whippings carried out in the town squares.
"We can chit-chat with our brothers, our friends, and even our boyfriends . . . . It's a real pleasure, we're so happy. I want to thank God." (BBC News - "Mali conflict: Timbuktu celebrates end of Islamist rule")
And so it is that Mr. Hollande arrived in Mali yesterday to a hero's welcome, the kind of jubilant gratitude that former President George W. Bush could only have dreamt about from the citizens of liberated Iraq or Afghanistan, or that even President Obama would be unlikely to receive from the fractious tribes of post-Gaddafi Libya. (Indeed, it is my fervent belief that President Bush would have greatly preferred receiving a camel - even a constipated one - to the gift of shoes that he was so infamously given during a Baghdad press conference.)
But while President Hollande is currently riding high, the French victory - and Malian peace - is by no means assured. As many have pointed out, comparatively few Islamist fighters have been killed in the French campaign. Most have fled into the mountains and deserts, lurking in the redoubts and hiding places that the GSPC (e.g. Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat - the Algerian jihadist group that later evolved into AQIM) formerly called home. And it is there they will likely stay - unless someone (*cough* the French *cough*) roots them out or until they see new opportunities to exert themselves. The Islamist groups of the Sahel did a brisk business in smuggling, kidnapping for profit, and other criminal enterprises before they got into the whole "seizing-control-of-countries" game. They are perfectly capable of maintaining their strength and keeping their coffers full without the bother that administrating a state (even through the relatively simplistic methods of brutality and fear) entails.
Thus, the measure of Opération Serval, like the US military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq before it, will come not from the initial victory - which, as Hollande's visit shows, has already largely been achieved - but from the standpoint of long-term stability. Will the Islamists return if given the chance? Will Mali descend into tit-for-tat recriminations, or, worse, full-blown ethnic conflict? Will the French stay (Hollande told a crowd in the Malian capitol of Bamako that "We will be with you to the end," and also stated that the French would stay in Mali "as long as necessary") or quickly hand over military responsibility of the country to the not-exactly-stellar Malian security forces?
These are all questions that will be answered in time. Until then, however, I hope that Mr. Hollande can occasionally take some time off from presidentin' to enjoy his camel. Picturing him riding it up and down the Champs-Élysées (and imagining it growling at unsuspecting Parisians) brings nothing but joy to my heart.
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More stories/video about President Hollande's visit to Mali:
- NYT: "Timbuktu Gives France’s President an Ecstatic Welcome"
- NYT Slideshow: "French President Receives Warm Greetings in Mali"
- The Telegraph: "Timbuktu hails France's President Francois Hollande, its saviour in a suit"
- Washington Post/Associated Press: "Thousands cheer, welcome French president’s visit to Mali weeks after military operation began"
- The Guardian: "François Hollande visits Timbuktu as Mali intervention declared successful"
- BBC: "French President Hollande pledges to help rebuild Mali"
Hollande Meets with Mali's Interim Leader in Sevare:
Al Jazeera: "Hollande Says Mali War is Not Over":
France's Hollande visits library housing torched manuscripts in Timbuktu:
