Several Interesting Videos from Syria Over the Weekend

Not much time to write anything, but here are several videos out of/about Syria from over the weekend.

Prisoner X, Lies, and Videotape

The world has been captivated this past week by the strange saga of Ben Zygier, Israel's so-called "Prisoner X" - an apparently high-value prisoner held at Israel's Ayalon prison under a false name until he allegedly hanged himself in December 2010.  I have been following the story with some perplexity; I was in Israel during the summer of 2010, when the existence of "Prisoner X" was inadvertently revealed via a passing reference in an online YNet article, but I honestly have no recollection of the media storm that the revelation created.  It has only been this weekend, when I've finally had time to sit and read up on it that I feel I've been able to grasp what's been going on . . .

The basic story is as follows: the existence of a mysterious, unnamed prisoner being held in the high-security Ayalon prison was originally revealed in a YNet article published in the summer of 2010.  Israel's domestic intelligence service apparently obtained a media gag order on the story, and the original article was pulled from the web within hours of being posted.  But the public's curiosity, both in Israel and around the world was aroused: who was this mysterious prisoner? Why was he being held incommunicado?  The details published in the YNet piece were certainly tantalizing . . . As summarized by Richard Spencer and Adrian Blomfield, writing for The Telegraph:

"Quoting unidentified officials within the Israeli penitentiary service, [the YNet article] disclosed that Mr. X was being held in Unit 15, a wing of Ayalon prison that contains a single cell.

He is not though to receive any visitors and his wing is cut off from the rest of the prison by double iron doors. So hermetic are the conditions in which he is held that other prisoners can neither see nor hear him.

"He is simply a person without a name and without an identity who has been placed in total and utter isolation from the outside world," a prison official was quoted as saying."

The story was quite a conundrum.  A modern-day "Man in the Iron Mask": identity-less, unseen, unheard . . . At the time, opinions were rife about Prisoner X's identity.  The "journalist" Richard Silverstein (he of the oft-vaunted, but frequently wrong, anonymous sources) insisted that Prisoner X was an Iranian general, abducted by the Mossad while on a trip to Turkey.  (As the narrator to the ABC investigative piece on Prisoner X somewhat snarkily put it, see below, Silverstein's theory "went nowhere.")  Others, apparently much closer to the mark, saw Prisoner X's case as somehow involving espionage.  Regardless of the theories, the media gag-order effectively ended Israeli reporting on the case, and so, as no one else was talking/reporting, the whole thing remained a mystery.

Ben Zygier

Source: Sydney Morning Herald

Until this past Tuesday, that is, when the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) published a story and ran an investigative report (see below) naming Ben Zygier, an Australian national who had immigrated to Israel in 1994, as Prisoner X.  The revelation threw many segments of the media, blogosphere, and Israeli public into an uproar, reignited interest in the two-year-old mystery, and created a host of new and curious questions.  Prisoner X now had a name, but the crime Ben Zygier allegedly committed remained - and remains - unexplained.

The espionage angle, however, appears to currently be the favored theory as to why Zygier was imprisoned in such solitary conditions.  Zygier, apparently, was involved with the Mossad, Israel's secretive national intelligence organization, and he may have been involved in efforts by the agency to obtain false passports - specifically, Australian passports - for its operatives.

In a story in the Weekly Standard, ex-Mossad operative Michael Ross describes the Mossad's need for travel and identity documents as the agency's "Achilles heel," explaining that, unlike the spooks of most Western intelligence services, Israeli operatives typically cannot travel to the locations where they most need to conduct intelligence gathering and espionage activity using Israeli documentation.  Aside from Egypt and Jordan, no Arab or Muslim country - particularly long-standing Israeli enemies like Iran, Lebanon, and Syria - will permit Israeli citizens with Israeli passports to enter.  Indeed, those traveling to the Middle East with plans of traveling to both Israel and to some of the surrounding Arab countries should typically have Israeli customs agents stamp a separate sheet of paper rather than a passport page; some of the Arab countries will, supposedly, turn you away at the border if you are found to have traveled to Israel beforehand.

Anyway, Mr. Ross speculates that Zygier was involved in Mossad attempts to obtain false Australian passport documents - a mission that was fraught with risk, since, in 2004, two Mossad agents were arrested in Australia for doing precisely the same thing.  Ross continues:

"I suspect that ASIO approached Zygier during this period and notified him that they had compelling evidence he was a Mossad operative. From here on in, it could be that by using whatever leverage at their disposal, ASIO “turned” Zygier and he essentially became caught between the two services. Perhaps in return for not making the story public, and as a means to protect his family, Zygier elected to spy for Australia reporting on his activities within the Mossad. It may also be conjectured that through some incident, his activities drew the suspicion of the Mossad and his role as a “double” was revealed. It would appear that whatever transpired was as much an embarrassment Australia as it was for Israel."

I'm no expert on espionage (or am I? *shifty eyes.* No, no I'm not), but, to me at least, Mr. Ross's theory sounds very plausible.

Still, many questions remain, and, with luck, the world will get some more answers soon: today, the Israeli Knesset Intelligence Subcommittee agreed to undertake an independent investigation into Ben Zygier's jailing and suicide.  Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu defended Israel's treatment of Zygier, insisting that Israel is "an exemplary democracy and maintain[s] the rights of those under investigation," but that the country is also "more threatened and face[s] more challenges; [and], therefore, [] must maintain proper activity of [its] security agencies.”

I, for one, am quite curious as to where this case will go, and will try to keep my eyes and ears open for developments.  For now, though, let's go to that videotape promised in the title to this post: the original Australian Broadcasting Company investigative report, for anyone interested.

Al Jazeera Video Report on Syria's Jabhat al-Nusra

This video is from a few days ago, but still interesting . . .

Bonus Video: additionally, I also found this video, which includes the Arabic-language (with English subtitles) of the Al-Jazeera video above, as well as a CNN report on Jabhat al-Nusra. Note that the final third of this video comes from Syria's al-Ikhbariya news channel and is *pure Syrian regime propaganda* - it contains such ridiculous gems as "[The US] is promoting the [al-Nusra] terror organization and producing a new justification for the US administration to continue its invasion of the countries of the world, under the pretense of the so-called 'War on Terror.' "  If I could have found another copy of the CNN report somewhere else, I would have posted that; but I couldn't, so . . .   

Today's Interesting Links

Lots of interesting links today . . .

General Middle East:

• "The GCC in the Mediterranean in Light of the Arab Spring" (German Marshall Fund & Instituto Affari Internazionali)

Syria:

• "Assad's Public Appearance On Sunday Could Be His Last" (Business Insider)
• "Insight: Aleppo Misery Eats at Syrian Rebel Support" (Reuters)
• "Syria 'Has Chemical Weapons That Could Be Used Within Two Hours'" (The Telegraph)
• And the Quilliam Foundation has an interesting new strategic briefing on Jabhat al-Nusra (aka the al-Nusra Front) (جبهة النصرة لأهل الشام‎), which was covered be the BBC HERE.
• Also on the topic of the al-Nusra Front, I noticed a series of Tweets today from CNN's Arwa Damon (@arwaCNN) about how the al-Nusra Front is assisting civilians in the areas under its control with food and fuel aid.  This seems to further verify the humanitarian aspects of al-Nusra's program that I described in my earlier blog post, here. 

Turkey:

• "To End Kurdish Conflict, Turkey Calls on Archenemy" (IHT Rendezvous/NYT)
• "Turkey, Ocalan Map Out Steps to End Kurdish Conflict" (Reuters)

Jordan:

• "Will Jordan Be the First Arab Monarchy to Fall?" (The Atlantic)

Iraq:

• "US Defence Contractor Pays $5 Million to Iraqis Who Alleged Torture at Abu Ghraib" (Yahoo News)

Egypt:

• "Iranian Spy Chief's Visit to Cairo Was Meant to 'Send a Message to America'" (The Times)
• "Do Salafi Splits Signal Weakness, Or a Different Kind of Strength?" (Atlantic Council)
• "Egypt Finance: Qatar Steps in to Ease Cairo Cash Crisis" (BBC)
• And, finally, we have a couple videos from Wolf Blitzer's CNN interview with Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi.  Hope to get the full interview up eventually, but for now we just have to settle for these three clips: 

First, Morsi would like to see Omar Abdel-Rahman (aka the "Blind Sheik") freed, or, at least, granted better privileges/accommodations by the US:

Next, Morsi discusses his support for the Free Syrian Army and the other Syrian opposition groups fighting against Bashar al-Assad, as well as his support for trying Assad as a war criminal after the Syrian opposition is victorious:

Finally, Morsi discusses his opinion of President Obama and his plans to visit the United States before the end of the first quarter of this year:

Today's Interesting Links

And here are today's interesting links . . .

Saudi Arabia:

• "Child Bride Married to Elderly Man Escapes After Wedding" (Riyadh Bureau).  This story has also been reported on the BBC and in Canada's National Post. 
• I also found this interesting BBC Documentary on Saudi Arabia called Inside the Saudi Kingdom, in which the filmmakers follow Prince Saud bin Abdul Muhsin al-Saud (the governor of the Kingdom's Ha'il Province and one of the many, many grandsons of the Kingdom's founder and namesake Abdul Aziz ibn Saud).  After a quick internet search, I see that this is actually pretty old . . . from 2008, it seems.  But you know what?  I missed it then, so you get to see it now.

Counter-Terrorism:

• "US Strategy for Countering Violent Extremism: An Assessment" (Will McCants and Clinton Watts, Foreign Policy Research Institute)
• "If You Thought Obama's Drone Godfather Was Powerful, Wait 'til He's at CIA" (Wired's Danger Room)

Libya:

• "Assailant Killed in Assassination Attempt on Libya Islamist" (NYT)

Syria:

• "Hints of Syrian Chemical Push Set Off Global Efforts to Stop It" (NYT)
• "Syria: Why Assad May Yet Claim Victory" (The Guardian's Comment is Free)

Iran:

• "Iran: Oil Exports Decline 40% Due to Sanctions" (Jerusalem Post)

Today's Interesting Links

Here's a crop of today's interesting links:

Counter-Terrorism/Terrorist Groups:

• "Ommar Hammami Figures Out 'Joining Shabaab = Bad Idea' " (Selected Wisdom)

Syria:

• "No One is Happy With Assad's Big Speech" (The Atlantic Wire) 
• "Conversations: Yesterday I Defected from Assad's Army" (Syria Deeply)
• "Filmmaker Tells Syrian Rebels' Story" (CNN) 

Egypt:

• "Morsy Backs Syrian Calls for al-Assad to Face War Crimes Trial" (CNN)
• "Egypt's Morsi Remakes Cabinet, Increasing Islamist Presence" (Washington Post)
• "Bahais Cannot Enroll in Public School, Education Minister Says" (Egypt Independent)
• "In the North Sinai, Jihadis Stand Down the Egyptian Government" (The Daily Beast)

Libya:

• "Head of Libya's Parliament Survives Assassination Attempt" (Egypt Independent)

Israel:

• "Israel Plans to Build Syrian Border Fence" (NYT)
• "Senior IDF Officer: 3rd Intifada Has Already Begun" (Ynet)

Iraq:

• "Iraq: The 'Blood for Oil' Conspiracy is Dead" (Institute for Middle Eastern Democracy)

Assad's Non-Conflict-Ending Speech

Today in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad gave a defiant speech at the city's opera house, ostensibly to offer a plan to resolve the ongoing conflict/civil war that has been roiling Syria for the past 20 months.  Assad's "plan," however, seemed largely divorced from the reality of the situation in Syria, the demands of the opposition, or the hopes of international observers.  As the New York Times notes:

"[Mr. Assad] offered no new acknowledgment of the gains by the rebels fighting against him, the excesses of his government or the aspirations of the Syrian people. Mr. Assad also ruled out talks with the armed opposition and pointedly ignored its central demand that he step down . . . ."

Indeed, Assad used most of his speech to attack the Syrian opposition, reiterating the regime's propaganda line that the opposition groups are made up of "foreigners," "terrorists," and "takfiris."  The Syrian dictator asserted that, "[b]ecause takfiri thought is strange to our country, they [the Syrian opposition] had to import it from abroad, whether in terrorists or thought [sic.] . . . Thus, takfiris, terrorists, Qaeda members calling themselves jihadis streamed from everywhere to command the combat operations on the ground."

Assad seemed to cut off the possibility of negotiations with most of the Syrian opposition groups, stating that "[w]e will have dialogue with all parties and individuals that did not sell our country to the foreigner" and wondering "with whom shall we dialogue - those who are carrying extremist thinking, and do not believe [in anything] except [] blood, killing and terrorism?"

In terms of ending the conflict, Assad offered a three-stage plan with various sub-parts.  We're just going to block-quote it from the somewhat jumbled English translation published by the Lebanon Daily Star:

"The first stage: First of all, regional and foreign countries must stop funding, arming and harbouring militants at the same time that gunmen stop all terrorist operations in order to ease the return of displaced Syrians to their original homes in safety and security.

Immediately after that, all military operations by our armed forces will stop, though they will reserve the right to respond in the case of attack on the security of the nation or residents or public and private property.

Second, a mechanism will be created to ensure commitment to all previous agreements for controlling the borders.

Third, the current government will immediately begin intensive communications with all elements of Syrian society, its parties and organisations...It will hold a national dialogue conference that all forces interested in a solution in Syria can participate in.

The second stage: First, the current government will hold a comprehensive national dialogue to reach a national pact that commits to the sovereignty of Syria and the unity and peace of its territory and the rejection of intervention in its affairs and the rejection of terrorism and violence in all its forms.

This pact is what will outline the political future of Syria and will propose a new constitutional and legal system along with its political and economic features. It will agree on new laws for parties, elections and local administration.

Second, the national pact will be sent for popular referendum.

Third, an expanded government will be formed, which includes all elements of Syrian society and it will implement the articles of the pact.

Fourth, the new constitution will be put to popular referendum and after it is confirmed, the expanded government will use the new agreed laws from the pact and the new constitution and will run new parliamentary elections.

The third stage will be the forming of a new government according to the constitution.

Second, a truth and reconciliation conference will be held and a general amnesty will be issued for all those arrested because of the events, in keeping with civil law.

Third will be the work towards rehabilitating infrastructure and rebuilding and compensation to citizens hurt by events."

Yeah . . . Anyway, in other words, if you were looking for a quick and/or comparatively bloodless plan for ending the Syrian conflict, you ain't going to find it here.  No surprises there.  But it really seems like Assad still hasn't read the writing on the wall and is willing to continue sticking to his guns - literally.  Expect more bloodshed, greater conflict, and a continuously rising death toll.  As expected, members of the Syrian opposition have sharply criticized the speech, and it is unlikely to have any immediate effect on the fighting/killing going on on the ground.

Also, here is the full video of the speech, courtesy of (*gag*) PressTV:

Today's Interesting Links

Well, friends and neighbors, we have quite a crop of interesting links today.  Media mergers, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, and all sorts of things in between!  So, without much further ado . . .

General Interesting News:
First, Brian Stelter of the NYT's Media Decoder Blog reports that Al Jazeera is planning to purchase Al Gore's faltering Current TV.  Rather than merging with Current, Al Jazeera seems to be planning the creation of a brand new US-oriented television channel: Al Jazeera America.  The merger/purchase reportedly provides Al Jazeera with access to 60 million US households with cable/satellite television.

Also in the topic of general news, the New York Times today lost a US District Court battle over its quest to obtain greater details and documents concerning the United States' drone program.  A PDF copy of the court opinion for the case (New York Times Company, Charlie Savage, & Scott Shane v. US Department of Justice) can be found HERE.  Additionally, here is Wired's story about the NYT's case: " 'Alice in Wonderland' Ruling Lets Feds Keep Mum On Targeted-Killing Legal Rationale."

Syria:
Moving on to a much more depressing story, the United Nations is now estimating that over 60,000 people have been killed over the course of the Syrian conflict since March 2011.

Egypt:
Several interesting links out of Egypt today.  First up, we have Olga Khazan writing for the Washington Post: "Meet Egypt's Jon Stewart, Who is Now Under Investigation for Satire."

Next, we have an article from the Egyptian Independent concerning the dramatic expansion of power granted to Egypt's Shura Council by the new Egyptian Constitution.

Finally, we have, courtesy of MEMRI TV, a video of Egyptian cleric Mahmoud al-Masri talking about Israel's discomfort with the rise of an Islamist Egypt and an unstable Syria, and explaining that "the final annihilation of the Jews will come at the time of the Mahdi, or shortly before the Mahdi appears."  Charming.

And Some More:
And here are some more links, without the accompaniment of any of my blathering:

• Afghanistan:
• "Among Top News Stories, a War is Missing" (NYT Media Decoder)
• "What 2012 Has Meant for Afghanistan" (BBC)
• "Algeria Ruling Party Loses Senate Majority" (The Daily Star (Lebanon))
• "Strategic Horizons: When Generals Shape National Policy" (World Politics Review)
• "Renditions Continue Under Obama Despite Due Process Concerns" (Washington Post)

And, finally, a piece from Glenn Greenwald (with whom I sometimes vehemently disagree) on freedom of expression, censorship, and France's recent attempts to regulate/criminalize speech on Twitter.  I like this piece so much, that I may have to blog about it within the next several days.  If I don't, here is my favorite quote:  

Nowhere in Farago's pro-censorship argument does he address, or even fleetingly consider, the possibility that the ideas that the state will forcibly suppress will be ideas that he likes, rather than ideas that he dislikes. People who want the state to punish the expression of certain ideas are so convinced of their core goodness, the unchallengeable rightness of their views, that they cannot even conceive that the ideas they like will, at some point, end up on the Prohibited List.

That's what always astounds and bothers me most about censorship advocates: their unbelievable hubris. . . . .

The history of human knowledge is nothing more than the realization that yesterday's pieties are actually shameful errors. It is constantly the case that human beings of the prior generation enshrined a belief as objectively, unchallengably true which the current generation came to see as wildly irrational or worse. All of the most cherished human dogmas - deemed so true and undeniable that dissent should be barred by the force of law - have been subsequently debunked, or at least discredited.

How do you get yourself to believe that you're exempt from this evolutionary process, that you reside so far above it that your ideas are entitled to be shielded from contradiction upon pain of imprisonment? The amount of self-regard required for that is staggering to me.

While I don't agree with Mr. Greenwald that ALL of "the most cherished human dogmas" have been debunked or discredited, his overarching point is a good one.  Those who seek to criminalize or censor speech never seem to believe that their own ideas may one day be the ones that are proscribed.

What is the al-Nusra Front? (Part 3 - Why is the al-Nusra Front Important?)

Returning, once again, to our discussion of the al-Nusra Front, I'd like to (hopefully) conclude with a post about why the al-Nusra Front is important in the grand scheme of the Syrian conflict.

Why is the al-Nusra Front So Powerful/Important?

The al-Nusra Front is powerful and important for several reasons.  First, to put things very bluntly, al-Nusra is powerful because it's good at what it does.  While it is a fairly new group (having only been formed in January of this year), it is, as has been elaborated in one of my earlier posts, responsible for some of the most significant attacks against the Assad regime and the Syrian Army that have occurred since the beginning of the Syrian uprising.  In total, the group has claimed credit for over six hundred (600) attacks over the past year.

In addition to the group's sheer ferocity and the frequency/scale of its attacks, the al-Nusra Front is also significant due to its jihadist connections and its association with al-Qaeda.  The group has been described as the "next big al-Qaida franchise," and it is thought to be an offshoot of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) - the umbrella organization of Iraqi terror/insurgent groups that includes al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).  Indeed, al-Nusra's connections to AQI proved to be one of the main justifications provided by the US State Department when it blacklisted the al-Nusra Front as a "foreign terrorist organization" in early December 2012.  The State Department press release stated that while "al-Nusrah has sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian opposition," its attacks are, instead, "an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of the Syrian people for its own malign purposes."

Al-Nusra's connection to AQI and the ISI provides the group with a distinct advantage over other Syrian factions in terms of expertise, experience, and foreign resources.  Additionally, as Aaron Zelin has written in Foreign Policy, the al-Nusra Front benefits from its al-Qaeda connections through its access to online jihadi media forums:

"Jabhat al-Nusra is also plugged into al Qaeda's transnational online media echo system. Its official media outlet, al-Manara al-Bayda ("the White Minaret"), maintains ties with al Qaeda's web forums Shamukh al-Islam and al-Fida' al-Islam. On Shamukh, there is even a dedicated section for Jabhat al-Nusra's releases -- a status only shared with the ISI."

This access provides al-Nusra with a ready audience of jihadi/Islamist sympathizers to whom it publishes its statements and videos, some of which are fairly well-edited and heavily produced.  It also provides a platform for glossy "terrorist-training-camp-fun-time!" photos like these:

Finally, in addition to the frequency/ferocity of its attacks, its connections to al-Qaeda, and its . . . slick(?) . . . online advertising, the al-Nusra Front is important because it seems to be employing a strategy that other Islamist groups have used to significant affect in other areas of the Arab world.  This strategy is to use the provision of social services to bolster the group's prestige and to ingratiate it to the local community in the areas under its control.

Like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, and Hamas before it, the al-Nusra Front has already begun to employ this tactic, taking over important agricultural and energy operations in Deir Ezzor (Dayr al-Zawr) and the nearby city of Abu Kamal.  As Hassan Hassan writes (again in Foreign Policy), the al-Nusra Front is "perceived to be more disciplined and concerned with local communities' needs" than its secular counter-parts in the Syrian opposition, and the group has taken it upon itself to provide security for local businesses, affordable fuel distribution, and a host of other relief services.  Many Syrians, Hassan writes, "are drawn to the group by virtue of its effectiveness in fighting the regime and delivering public services."  The more firmly entrenched the al-Nusra Front becomes in the areas under its control, and the more public goodwill the group can accrue through its dispensation of social services, the more difficult it will be for more moderate, secular factions of the Syrian opposition to uproot it after the Syrian conflict has concluded.

On the Egyptian Economy

In the aftermath of the events surrounding the writing, protesting, voting, and passage of Egypt's new constitution, the Egyptian economy has once again taken center stage.  And the news, it seems, just keeps getting worse.

Now, I will warn you up front that, as a law student, I'm no economist.  In the field of economics, I know the supply and demand curve and that magic little point right where the lines intersect that's supposed to be the optimal level of production.  The rest is so much voodoo floating far, far over my head.  Which is why this post isn't focusing too much on analysis, put on providing information I've read in the news . . .

First, it's been well established that the Egyptian economy - which, according to those magical economists, was never exceptionally strong - took a major hit in the aftermath of the 25 January Revolution.  Political turmoil is never good for business, and Egypt was no exception: for instance, the country's foreign international reserves have fallen from $36 billion in December 2010 to $15 billion earlier this month.  As the Wall Street Journal writes, this is "barely enough to cover three months of imports—the minimum the IMF recommends for its members."

Within the last couples weeks/couple days, Egypt's economy suffered several new blows:

• Early December 2012: the political strife engendered by the drafting of Egypt's constitution and the politicking, popular protesting, and campaigning that characterized the couple weeks between its drafting and the constitutional referendum on December 15/22 resulted in the postponement of negotiations for a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  This unrest also caused President Morsi and the Egyptian government to cancel proposed austerity measures and tax increases.
• December 23, 2012: Standard & Poors' (S&P) cut Egypt's long-term sovereign rating from a "B" to a "B-" (while leaving the country's short-term rating at a "B" for both foreign and local currency debt).  Additionally, S&P "kept its negative outlook on the rating - suggesting it sees another cut as the most likely next move."

And now, today, another bit of bad news: the Egyptian pound has fallen to an eight-year low against the U.S. dollar.

Again, I'm no economist.  So for an analysis of these economic indicators and their potential effects on Egypt's citizens, the economies of other Middle Eastern countries, etc. you should probably ask someone who understands all of this significantly better than I do.  That said, here are some more links on the Egyptian economy that you may find useful:

• Morsi's Next Move: Egypt's President Got His Constitution, but Can He Fix the Economy? (Time World)
• "Guide to the End of the World (Or, Explainer on Currency Devaluation)" re: Egypt (Rebel Economy)
• Egypt Not on the Verge of Bankruptcy, Says PM (Egypt Independent)
• Egypt Reserves Plunge as Economic Crisis Bites (Reuters)
• Egypt's Economy: The Downside to Growth (Foreign Policy) (NOTE: this article is about the Egyptian economy more generally, and offers some historical context for what is currently going on; it is also several weeks old)

What is the al-Nusra Front? (Part 2 - What Has the Group Done?)

Continuing our discussion of the al-Nusra Front, we'll now turn from a more general discussion of the group and its mysterious leadership to its actions and its growing strength within the cadre of Syrian rebel groups fighting against the Assad regime.

What Has the al-Nusra Front Done?
Early in the year, during the first weeks/months of the al-Nusra Front's existence, it is somewhat difficult to determine precisely what attacks the group was responsible for.  Indeed, because some of the early attacks that were later claimed by, or attributed to, the al-Nusra Front - for instance, a suicide bombing of a trio of buses carrying Syrian riot police in a Damascus neighborhood in early January - occurred before the group was well known, rumors were rampant that al-Nusra was, in fact, a front created by the Syrian government to discredit the Free Syrian Army and other rebel factions.

Regardless of the truth or falsity of al-Nusra's claims on early attacks, the rest of 2012 demonstrated the group's grim expertise, its power, and it authenticity.

For a more complete list of (claimed) attacks by the al-Nusra Front than you will ever likely need, I'd recommend consulting the group's Arabic-language statements, which have been gathered on the Jihadology blog by the inimitable Aaron Zelin.  However, the following is but a brief list of al-Nusra's most significant attacks:

• May 29, 2012: al-Nusra claimed responsibility for the mass-execution of 13 people in Deir Ezzor.  (NOTE: al-Nusra was also allegedly responsible for further such massacres in Deir Ezzor later in the year, such as this video from early December that supposedly shows al-Nusra fighters executing bound captives).
• October 3, 2012: al-Nusra claimed responsibility for a triple suicide car-bombing in Aleppo's Sa'adallah al-Jabiri Square.  The group claimed to be targeting Syrian command centers at a nearby officer's club, two hotels, and the local municipal offices.
• Early October 2012: al-Nusra allegedly partnered with the Free Syrian Army to seize control of an airbase in al-Ta'aneh outside of Aleppo.  This joint operation supposedly allowed the group to obtain a number of anti-aircraft missiles.
• Early December 2012: al-Nusra and several associated Islamist groups seized control of the Sheik Suleiman military base outside of Aleppo.  Allegedly, this base houses a scientific research facility connected to Syria's chemical weapons program.

Additionally, here is a map depicting the locations and relative frequency of al-Nusra's attacks between January and September 2012:

Source: Elizabeth O'Bagy, "Jihad in Syria," Middle East Security Report 6, September 2012.

Finally, the al-Nusra Front's terrorist output is prolific.  The group has claimed credit for hundreds of attacks, large and small - ranging from small-arms battles and attacks on traffic checkpoints to major suicide or car/truck bombings - including, in one instance, claiming credit for forty-five (45) attacks in four separate Syrian provinces in a single day.  In total, al-Nusra is allegedly responsible for nearly 600 attacks against Syrian forces and Assad loyalists since November 2011 (Time Magazine and State Department Press Statement Designating al-Nusra as a Terrorist Organization).

And . . . I was going to make this post a bit longer and discuss the importance of the al-Nusra Front within the larger context of the Syrian conflict/civil-war, but . . . I think this is long enough for now.

Merry Christmas! (And Some Christmas/Christian-Related Links)

Merry belated Christmas, everybody!  I didn't do any blogging yesterday, choosing instead to eat chocolate, horde my loot, and take the girlfriend to see Les Miserables.  To all those menfolk taking their significant others to Les Mis, just remember: in a darkened theatre, no one can see you cry.

All in all, it was a relaxing way to celebrate the birth of Jesus, who is Lord and also the Christ.  In the spirit of Christmas, here are some Middle East-ish Christian/Christmas-related links.  Apologies for the fact that many of them are depressing . . .

• Christianity "Close to Extinction" in the Middle East (The Telegraph)
• Pakistan's Loneliest Church Celebrates Christmas in Taliban Country (Reuters)
• After 1500 Years, Frankincense Returns to the Holy Land in Time for Christmas (Times of Israel)
• Mahmoud Abbas's Christmas Message (Palestine Press News Agency) (NOTE: less a Christmas message than an attack on Israel, Israeli settlement policy, and the separation barrier)
• Benyamin Netanyahu's Christmas Message:

• Boko Haram Attacks Two Churches in Northern Nigeria, Kills 12 (Long Wars Journal)

What is the al-Nusra Front? (Part 1)

As the Syrian conflict/civil-war continues to spiral into a bloodier and bloodier mess, I want to take a moment to write about a group that is playing a central role in the conflict: Jabhat al-Nusra (جبهة النصرة لأهل الشام), aka the al-Nusra Front. The al-Nusra Front was big news about a week ago when the US government designated the group as a terrorist organization.

So what is the al-Nusra Front?  Who are its members?  And what is the role that the group has played, is playing, and may eventually play in the larger Syrian conflict of which it is but one small (albeit powerful) component part?

As a general introduction, the al-Nusra Front is one of the most - if not the most - powerful factions involved in the Syrian conflict.  It was founded in January 2012.  The group's religious bent is Sunni Islamic, and its ideology is, more specifically, Salafist: as one military commander of the group has stated,

"Our first goal is to get rid of Assad. Then we want a state where the Quran is the only source of law . . . . Sharia is the right path for all humanity - all other laws make people unhappy."

Indeed, as the International Crisis group has pointed out, the al-Nusra Front views the deposition of Bashar al-Assad and his regime as "only half the battle."  Full success for al-Nusra will "come only once the entire regime was replaced with an Islamic state following Salafi principles."  (See International Crisis Group, "Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition").

Leader(s): The leaders of the al-Nusra Front are largely unknown.  An unidentified man using the nom de guerre of Al-Fateh Abu Muhammad al-Jolani (transliteration differences online sometimes render this as "al-Golani," "al-Jilani," or "al-Jawlani") narrated the group's initial video release (main portion of video w/ subtitles beginning around 4:02), announcing its formation, describing the rationale for its coming to Syria, and outlining its aims. Al-Jolani has been identified as the al-Nusra Front's leader, or, in some instances, as its "General Secretary."  Whatever that means.  I don't have a picture of this mysterious al-Jolani to show you. Sorry.  Or maybe I do . . . here's a picture of general khafiya-clad al-Nusra Front members from their video.  Maybe he's one of them - like, say, black-hooded-executioner-guy in the bottom corner?

The number and identities of other senior al-Nusra Front officers are equally unknown.  Allegedly, however, much of the top leadership is made up of non-Syrians: specifically, Lebanese and Palestinian militants - some of whom are linked to the Palestinian Fatah al-Islam organization.  This analysis of al-Nusra's leadership seems to have found some level of confirmation from the testimony of Syrian fighters who have fought or interacted with the al-Nusra Front in various ways.  For instance:

A rebel soldier who briefly joined JN [e.g. Jabhat al-Nusra] before opting to join with the rebel Suqour al-Sham Brigade stated that, "Most of the young men I worked with were Syrian revolutionaries who joined JN because they were stronger and more effective. Yes we are mujahideen, but we didn’t think of it as al-Qaeda."  He added, "There was a lot of secrecy surrounding the leadership.  I left JN when I discovered that many of the leaders were not Syrian but Lebanese or Palestinians that used to work with the Syrian intelligence agencies."

 The general consensus is that the ranks of the al-Nusra Front's leadership are filled with a number of experienced jihadists who have fought on various battlefields throughout the Arab World and Central Asia.

I am going to cut this off here for length purposes, but will post more on al-Nusra within the next several days.

20th Century Battlefields: The Yom Kippur War

Mostly for more layout testing purposes, but also for your enjoyment, an embedded video: a BBC documentary on the Yom Kippur War of 1973.